12 Feb 2025

MO Briefing

12 Feb 2025 · NSE Derivatives Structure

coherentstressedexpansioncontraction

Posture

Fragmented Contraction

1 session

Contractionary lean but instruments disagreeing. Surface alignment masks internal divergence.

How to read this

The compass maps the structural posture of the derivatives market. The horizontal axis shows expansion vs contraction. The vertical axis shows coherence vs stress.

The dot marks today's position. The trail shows the past 7 sessions. The posture label describes what the structure is — not where it's going.

Depth panels below show the underlying measurements: positioning breadth, basis stress, range compression, and structural activity.

Depth

Positioning — 662 instruments

28%
42%
11%
14%
Long Buildup 188Short Buildup 281Long Unwind 71Short Cover 94Neutral 28

Structural lean: -0.106(282 expansionary, 352 contractionary)

Basis Stress

Flip stress

0.97x

below baseline

Divergence

1.59x

elevated

Basis flip stress below baseline (0.97x). Instrument divergence elevated (1.59x baseline)

Range Compression

Futures

1.28x

elevated · 1 contracts

Equities

1.23x

elevated · 2030 contracts

Slightly expanded ranges (1.28x baseline)

Recent Path

Early Expansion04
Fragmented Expansion05
Fragmented Contraction06
Fragmented Contraction07
Coordinated Contraction10
Coordinated Contraction11
Fragmented Contraction12

Structural Activity

Elevated
posture changed|flip stress normal|divergence elevated

Transitioned from Coordinated Contraction

Next MO Briefing: Monday 08:30 IST

MarketObservatory describes the structural condition of the market. It does not predict price direction.