04 Feb 2025

MO Briefing

04 Feb 2025 · NSE Derivatives Structure

coherentstressedexpansioncontraction

Posture

Early Expansion

1 session

First session of expansionary alignment. Persistence not yet confirmed.

How to read this

The compass maps the structural posture of the derivatives market. The horizontal axis shows expansion vs contraction. The vertical axis shows coherence vs stress.

The dot marks today's position. The trail shows the past 7 sessions. The posture label describes what the structure is — not where it's going.

Depth panels below show the underlying measurements: positioning breadth, basis stress, range compression, and structural activity.

Depth

Positioning — 662 instruments

48%
14%
26%
Long Buildup 319Short Buildup 93Long Unwind 26Short Cover 174Neutral 50

Structural lean: +0.565(493 expansionary, 119 contractionary)

Basis Stress

Flip stress

0.90x

below baseline

Divergence

0.55x

below baseline

Basis flip stress below baseline (0.90x). Instrument divergence below baseline (0.55x)

Range Compression

Futures

1.08x

elevated · 1 contracts

Equities

0.76x

below baseline · 2015 contracts

Slightly expanded ranges (1.08x baseline)

Recent Path

Contraction Under Stress28
Expansion Under Stress29
Fragmented Expansion30
Fragmented Expansion31
Contraction Under Stress01
Coordinated Contraction03
Early Expansion04

Structural Activity

Active
posture changed|flip stress normal|divergence normal

Transitioned from Coordinated Contraction

Next MO Briefing: Monday 08:30 IST

MarketObservatory describes the structural condition of the market. It does not predict price direction.