31 Dec 2025

MO Briefing

31 Dec 2025 · NSE Derivatives Structure

coherentstressedexpansioncontraction

Posture

Fragmented Expansion

1 session

Expansionary lean but instruments disagreeing. Surface alignment masks internal divergence.

How to read this

The compass maps the structural posture of the derivatives market. The horizontal axis shows expansion vs contraction. The vertical axis shows coherence vs stress.

The dot marks today's position. The trail shows the past 7 sessions. The posture label describes what the structure is — not where it's going.

Depth panels below show the underlying measurements: positioning breadth, basis stress, range compression, and structural activity.

Depth

Positioning — 636 instruments

63%
14%
15%
Long Buildup 402Short Buildup 86Long Unwind 11Short Cover 98Neutral 39

Structural lean: +0.634(500 expansionary, 97 contractionary)

Basis Stress

Flip stress

0.70x

below baseline

Divergence

1.04x

elevated

Basis flip stress below baseline (0.70x). Instrument divergence elevated (1.04x baseline)

Range Compression

Futures

1.85x

elevated · 213 contracts

Equities

0.85x

below baseline · 2381 contracts

Expanded ranges (1.89x baseline)

Recent Path

Expansion Under Stress22
Expansion Under Stress23
Contraction Under Stress24
Contraction Under Stress26
Contraction Under Stress29
Contraction Under Stress30
Fragmented Expansion31

Structural Activity

Elevated
posture changed|flip stress normal|divergence elevated

Transitioned from Contraction Under Stress

Next MO Briefing: Monday 08:30 IST

MarketObservatory describes the structural condition of the market. It does not predict price direction.